China drops to second-largest tourist market for Japan

The row between Beijing and Tokyo was triggered afterJapanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated in a recent parliamentary address that a hypothetical Chinese attack on democratically-governed Taiwan could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

Beijing responded strongly, advising its citizens to avoid travel to Japan and also sent a formal letter to the UN to establish its grievances against the remarks.

The impact on the tourism sector shows no signs of ebbing.

What the numbers show

Mainland China was Japan's largest tourism market from 2015 until the COVID-19 pandemic that brought global travel to a grinding halt. Since then, however, tourism numbers between the two countries have rebounded, with China surpassing South Korea last month to become the region with the highest number of tourists visiting Japan in the past ten months.

China is also Japan's largest export market after the United States, buying about $125 billion of Japanese goods in 2024 — mainly industrial equipment, semiconductors and automobiles, according to UN COMTRADE data.

What's next

Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University, tells Reuters that the Chinese are going to continue to find different pressure points on the Japanese economy — an outcome that could result in Japan losing as much as $1.2 billion in tourist spending by the end of the year, according to China Trading Desk, a market researcher that specializes in travel data.

While the Lunar New Year traditionally draws large numbers of Chinese tourists to Japan, the recent wave of cancellations could dampen this trend.