The Kenya Meteorological Department: Inside Kenya’s weather monitoring hub

Dry seasons, mostly experienced in Northern Kenya, force the residents to endure the scarcity of resources like water and food. Other areas like the Mount Kenya region enjoy fair wet and cool seasons, allowing them the privilege of surplus food supplies, even creating markets for their produce.

These varying conditions not only inform food security but also transport systems and the quality of life.

Kenyans living in these different regions are however able to navigate different weather patterns owing to the nation's advanced structures of climatology.

The Kenya Meteorological Department shows us how this institution crucially plays an important role in the planning and decision-making of the day-to-day lives of Kenyans.

We arrive at this station a few minutes before the next reading of weather data from instruments based at the observatory station manned by Dorcas Mule, a meteorological technologist.

Here, instruments like the rain gauge, sunshine recorder, thermometer, anemometer and others are monitored to collect crucial weather data at regular intervals.

After the collection, the data is recorded on screens that digitally store live hourly data of weather patterns that are then stored in servers alongside data from other 39 weather stations across the nation.

Data from all these centres are collected at the weather headquarters in Nairobi and carefully stored in servers under labels of flood-prone, drought-prone and rainfall-prone areas.

After collecting data, the forecasting office helps in undertaking weather readings and produces forecasts that support the aviation, agriculture, education and marine sectors.

“Before any pilot takes off, they have to be briefed on the prevailing weather conditions, expected weather conditions enroute and in the alternate aerodromes. No pilot would dare take off without pre-flight briefing,” said Kenya Met Director Edward Muriuki.

The data is integrated with the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for global weather monitoring through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which acts as a designated center that provides specialized, real-time weather forecasting, technical guidance, and advisories, particularly for tropical cyclones and environmental emergencies.

Saumu Shaka, a Principal Meteorologist, said that the institution uses satellite data through the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a translation of the Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) to see the pressures within the African continent.

Africa has four weather pressure cells that inform the weather conditions experienced in different regions.

“One seat within the Mascarene Islands over the Southern areas of Africa, same to Saint Helena, the Azov region and the Arabian region,” she said.

“The orientation of these high-pressure cells can act for us or against us. It acts on the simple principle of physics where air moves from high to low pressure.”

Through the Climate Prediction Center, weather conditions can be detected almost two weeks prior but changes can happen when sudden weather disruptions like cyclones or intense weather conditions appear on the signal.

That was the case in the recently experienced torrential rains in Kenya that saw severe flooding in Nairobi.

“What happened is we had an early onset as compared to what we had forecasted because the pressures in the South intensified faster than normal,” Saumu added.

This is then what informs the issuing of an advisory using the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre that facilitates support for heavy rainfall.

“First of all, we look at different global models to come up with a consensus to give an advisory. You cannot depend on just one model,” she added.

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) runs daily and uses the same data in the GTS. It helps to flag out any probability of more than 50 mm of rain since anything above 20mm has seemed to be alarming based on recent advisories.

“If we see any of those models coupled with the CPC, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWF) and the Extreme Focus Index to flag out abnormal rainfall,” she explained.

“You will be more confident giving the advisory because you have the index indicating anything between 0.5 to 0.9 should be something to be worried about,” she said.

These predictions can however not always be accurate since the simulation models can detect wrong probabilities that get affected by the sudden change in weather patterns.

“There are times we could go wrong like in any other discipline because forecasting is all about predicting how the weather will be tomorrow based on how it has been previously and how it is today,” Director Mwaniki said.

“You can never come up with a replica of the atmosphere because it is a complex system with innumerable processes,” he said.

For specific counties, various models under the WMO are used to collect weather data in specific areas and forecasters then meet to curate the specific conditions experienced in different areas.

Through global coordination, Kenya Met can efficiently conduct accurate weather readings and provide informed meteorological consultancy to protect critical sectors in the nation.

“Weather knows no boundary because whatever happens in one administrative e unit it could also happen in their neighbouring counties. For us to be able to forecast weather, we need information from other countries,” he said.

An increase in demand for forecast services has been on the rise since Kenyans have understood the importance of integrating weather patterns into their day-to-day lives.

The department has prioritised inclusivity to even include braille versions of weather forecast readings alongside sensitising locals in remote areas.

The department has maintained that ignorance of the climate will only result in a detrimental crisis that cripples advancement and societal growth.

“It is very critical to factor in climate. What we are advocating for is a shift in our mindset, to move from crisis response to climate preparedness, because you are able to plan better. We cannot afford to ignore the forecasts,” he said.

“Our information is reliable. From the feedback we get, we are talking about accuracy levels of beyond 85%, close to 90% and at times 100%.”