Ukraine warns Russia has 'almost completed' build-up of forces near border
Ukraine has
warned that Russia has "almost completed" its build-up of forces
that could be used for an offensive against the country, compounding fears that
Moscow could launch an invasion at any time.
According
to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's latest intelligence assessment -- shared
exclusively Tuesday with CNN -- Russia has now deployed more than 127,000
troops in the region.
"The
full strength of RF AF (Russian Federation's Armed Forces) land group at the
Ukrainian direction -- (is) over 106,000 personnel. Together with the sea and
air component, the total number of personnel is over 127,000 servicemen,"
the assessment said.
The
assessment called the situation "difficult," and said Ukraine
believes Russia is "trying to split and weaken the European Union and
NATO."
Russia's
actions are also "aimed at limiting the capabilities of the United
States," the assessment said, "to ensure security on the European
continent."
The
assessment comes after three rounds of diplomatic talks between Russia and the
West aimed at de-escalating the crisis failed to produce a resolution last
week.
US
Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said last Wednesday it was unclear whether Moscow
intended to use the talks as a pretext to claim that diplomacy cannot work.
Ukrainian
military intelligence said Russia has deployed troops from its central and
eastern regions to its western border "on a permanent basis." At the
end of December and in January, Russia has been moving "stockpiles of
ammunition, field hospitals and security services" to the border, it said,
which according to Ukraine "confirms the preparation for offensive
operations."
The
new assessment also said Russia supports more than 35,000 rebels in eastern
Ukraine and has about 3,000 of its own military personnel based in rebel
territory. Moscow denies having any forces in eastern Ukraine.
Russia's
intelligence activity against Ukraine has also intensified, the assessment
said, with additional radio and satellite traffic units being deployed near the
Ukrainian border and reconnaissance flights along the border having tripled
since this time last year.
The
Ukrainian military also said Russia could use medium-range missile weapons to
"destroy vital objects," noting "additional tactical groups of
'Iskander' operational-tactical missiles" have been transferred to the
border.
As
of mid-January, there are 36 Iskander launchers near Ukraine, according to the
assessment.
Iskander
missiles are capable of striking targets 500-700 km (approximately 310-430
miles) away and could now target areas including the capital, Kyiv, it said.
New
front line
The
Ukrainian document warned a new potential front line has now emerged along its
northern border with Belarus, a key Kremlin ally.
"The
territory of Belarus should be considered as a full-fledged theater of
operations that Russia can use to expand aggression against Ukraine," the
Ukrainian military intelligence document said.
US
State Department officials underlined those concerns Tuesday, saying Russia's
bolstered troop presence in Belarus has increased their capabilities along the
Ukrainian border and led to heightened concerns about an invasion.
"What
it represents is an increased capability for Russia to launch this attack.
Increased opportunity, increased avenues, increased risk," a senior US
State Department official said, adding that the troops were moved into Belarus
without sufficient notice.
In
Belarus, Russia is "preying on (Belarusian leader Alexander) Lukashenko's
vulnerability and calling in some of those accumulated IOUs," the official
said.
"The
timing is notable and of course raises concerns that Russia could intend to
station troops in Belarus under the guise of joint military exercises in order
potentially to attack Ukraine from the North," the official said.
While
the official would not speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin's intent when it comes
to moving troops into Belarus, the official described Putin as "an
opportunist."
"We've
seen warning signs that the dynamics inside Belarus are enabling Russia to
further prey on Lukashenko's self-inflicted vulnerability," the official
said.
US
officials have said a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen at any point in
the next month or two.
"Russian
military plans to begin activities several weeks before a military invasion are
something we've been watching closely and our assessment has been that could
happen anytime between mid-January and mid-February," a second senior
State Department official explained.
The
United States is looking closely at whether Lukashenko still has the levers of control in his country
-- or whether the decision-making has been largely passed over to Russia.
Belarus
has become an "increasingly destabilizing actor in the region" the
first State Department official said, pointing to a number of recent actions
such as manufacturing a migrant crisis on the Poland-Belarus border, arresting
activists and holding more than 900 political prisoners.
'United
against Putin'
Ukraine's
assessment comes as the country's former President, Petro Poroshenko, told
CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday that "the whole world should be
united against Putin," and that Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO.
The
billionaire led Ukraine from 2014 until 2019, taking power shortly after Russia
invaded and subsequently annexed Crimea. He was defeated in the 2019
presidential election by incumbent Volodymyr Zelensky.
"It
is absolutely necessary that there is international solidarity and unity"
against Putin, Poroshenko said, adding that Western allies should not trust the
Russian leader.
The
56-year-old also called for an increase in international sanctions against
Russia. "We need to make Russia weaker, and to make Russia weaker, we can
do that through the sanctions. We should make Ukraine stronger. And day by day,
we should receive new effective defensive lethal weapons," he said.
Poroshenko
also said "nobody knows, including Putin" whether a Russian invasion
will actually happen and a lot will depend on the introduction of sanctions.
Calling a potential invasion a "crazy decision," he said the
international community should "increase significantly the price Putin
should pay" if Russian forces cross the Ukrainian border.
When
asked whether endemic corruption is a reason Ukraine has not been accepted as a
member of NATO, Poroshenko pointed blame at his successor, Zelensky, for a
"backslide" of corruption reforms.
Poroshenko
returned to the capital, Kyiv, on Monday to face treason charges linked to the
financing of Russian-backed separatist fighters through illegal coal sales in
2014 and 2015.
When
pressed on the charges he faces, Poroshenko said the accusations were
"politically motivated" and that prosecutors had "zero
evidence."
According to Reuters, critics say his return to Ukraine is
serving as an badly timed distraction amid the political crisis with Russia.
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