Disaster looms as weatherman predicts sixth straight failed rainy season

Kenya is heading into a sixth straight failed rainy season, the Meteorological Department has said.

The met department says only a small fraction of the country will receive normal rains, with the rest registering depressed and highly depressed rainfall that is set to start in two weeks' time.

For a country already reeling under high food prices, the report from the weatherman paints a picture of even harder times ahead. The March to May weather forecast shows that the country's and the region's rain outlook is less than desirable.

"The analysis we have done does not promise a lot of rainfall. There may be some delays and we may have long periods where there no rain is recorded. In the long term we will see a situation where some places will get less than average rain," said Dr. David Gikunyu, Director, Kenya Met Department.

According to the forecast, only three areas, parts of Marsabit, Kajiado and eastern parts of Narok will register normal rainfall for this period.

The regions in the country's bread basket, including Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, the larger parts of western Kenya will receive depressed rains, while the rest of the counties, including Nairobi, will receive what the met department terms as highly depressed rains, that will last until June.

"Even in terms of farming, and other uses of the main product of rainfall, there should be enough, but the story is about depressed rainfall across most parts of the country," said Gikunyu.

That depressed rain now portends more trouble for the country's agriculture sector and her food security situation.

It is expected that farmers will have low crop and pasture performances, which will result in low yields for farmers.

The spillover effect of this will be low access to foods that will cost more, further worsening the food insecurity in these regions and the country. The reduced rains will also pose a risk to the survival of livestock in a sector that has already suffered losses running into over 2 million animals.

The met department has however stated that there could be cases of flash flooding and increased waterborne disease incidents in places where normal rains will fall.

At the same time, the impact of the rains will be felt in the energy sector with decreased hydropower generation at the seven forks dam.

The National Disaster Management Authority has been challenged to be ready for any eventualities based on the weather data.