EXPLAINER: Kenya's drought situation in numbers

The situation in Kenya is getting dire. A few weeks ago, the government had 23 counties on high alert as far as drought is concerned. Just last week, that number went up to 29 counties in distress, with 10 out of those 29 been classified as in the red zone.

The Kenya Red Cross that has been part of the relief efforts has classified them into 2 categories as those on alert and those where there is alarm. The counties at alert stage include Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Kilifi.

Those at alarm stage include Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia, Tana River and Marsabit.

Now, these classifications are based on some indicators including how much time and distance it takes to access food and water. On average, residents travel 3km to access water, but by the time a county or region is classified as at being at alarm stage, residents there are travelling up to 48km to access water.

Residents living in counties at alarm stage also have minimal access to food and are not able to get food locally or from their own capacity, so they need some level of support. In the alarm phase, they need more support than those in the alert stage. If interventions at this stage are not helpful then they are likely to move to emergency status at which point they will need 100 per cent food support and will be bordering on famine.

This time round, you will notice that we are seeing counties that have not typically been in drought distress. Counties such as Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka. Whilst the situation may not be county-wide, we see pockets of distress at the sub-county or ward level. And ironically in some of those counties, there is glut in some areas and distress in others.

These classifications are consistent with the weatherman’s report that the areas mentioned will receive far below average rainfall this season coupled with warmer than average temperatures.

Now, when we break this down further, there are 4.35 million Kenyans who are food insecure. These are people who require continuous support in terms of food. They do not have enough food as part of the effects of drought. They may have lost their source of food, for instance it could be pastoralists who do not have milk, don’t have animals for meat, can’t sell their animals to buy food. For the farmers, their production is so low that they cannot sustain themselves at household level.

Also at this time, the Kenya Red Cross is reporting that slightly over 1 million pregnant women and children are acutely malnourished. This means that they are not able to get their nutritional needs from the foods that they eat. They therefore require some nutritional reports through some special foods meant to try and feel the gap of what they lack.

And it is not just humans bearing the brunt of the season. The Principal Secretary in the Ministry of Livestock, while launching a dairy nutrition manual in Mombasa County this week reported that 2.5 million livestock have died over the last 4 seasons due to the ongoing drought. Perhaps, putting to question the success of the livestock uptake program.

All this while we know that the short rains expected this month, have failed or will not be sufficient according to the Kenya Met Department. The latest Met report suggests hot and dry weather conditions for this week with some rainfall expected in parts of the country over the weekend. In general, the weatherman has warned that we are looking at a fifth consecutive failed rainy season will be devastating for millions of Kenyans already feeling the effects of drought.