OPINION: Diaz - The future of the aviation industry, why global hubs matter and what Africa must do to compete

By Chris Diaz

Few industries reflect globalization as clearly as aviation. Every day, millions of people crisscross continents for business, tourism, trade and family reunions.

Airports are not just transit points but rather they are economic engines, logistics hubs, and symbols of national ambition. As the aviation industry evolves, shaped by technology, climate pressure, shifting travel patterns, and geopolitics, the gap between global mega-hubs and emerging regional airports is becoming ever more pronounced.

Nowhere is this contrast clearer than between Dubai and Africa’s leading aviation hubs such as Nairobi, Addis Ababa, Cairo, and Johannesburg.

Dubai’s rise as the world’s most important aviation hub did not just happen but rather it is a result of strategic thought and investment. Strategically positioned between Europe, Asia, and Africa, the city invested early and aggressively in aviation as a cornerstone of its economic future.

Dubai International Airport (DXB) has become one of the busiest airports on earth, handling over 92 million passengers in 2024, with the vast majority traveling internationally. The airport’s economic impact is staggering, contributing an estimated 36.3 billion dollars to Dubai’s economy and supporting over 630,000 jobs.

Passenger numbers however only tell part of the story. Dubai built an entire ecosystem around aviation. Emirates Airline operates long-haul routes that connect secondary cities across continents, making Dubai a natural transfer point.

The airport operates 24 hours a day, minimizes congestion through efficient design, and integrates seamlessly with logistics, tourism, finance, and real estate. Travelers do not simply pass through Dubai; they spend, invest, and return. In 2023, Dubai welcomed over 17 million international overnight visitors, with a significant portion transiting through its aviation hub.

Dubai’s success offers a clear lesson that aviation hubs are not built by airports alone but by policy clarity, long-term investment, airline strategy, and relentless focus on the passenger experience.

Even though Africa’s aviation hubs operate at a much smaller scale, this does not mean that they lack importance and potential. Cairo International Airport is Africa’s busiest airport and in 2024, it handled close to 29 million passengers.

O.R. Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg, South Africa, handled around 21 million passengers pre-pandemic (2019) and is recovering steadily, while Addis Ababa Bole International Airport in Ethiopia handled around 17 million passengers in 2024, fueled by Ethiopian Airlines' aggressive growth.

Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) in Nairobi remains East Africa’s leading hub, serving just over 9 million passengers annually and a leading transit hub in Africa.

While this is a fraction of Dubai’s traffic, JKIA in Kenya  plays a vital role in connecting Africa to Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, as well as linking the region globally and  continentally.

The airport facilitates the export of over 150,000 metric tons of cargo annually, with horticulture (flowers and vegetables) accounting for a significant share, valued at over $1 billion in exports each year.

The comparison between Dubai and JKIA, and indeed other African aviation hubs, could not be more stark. Dubai processes roughly ten times more passengers than JKIA Kenya, and more than triple the traffic of Africa’s busiest airport.

This gap is however not just about demand as it reflects differences in connectivity, airline networks, infrastructure efficiency, and strategic intent. For instance, while DXB offers connections to over 240 destinations, JKIA offers direct flights to roughly 50, highlighting a significant disparity in global reach.

One major reason Dubai dominates global aviation is the scale and ambition of its anchor airline, Emirates. Emirates operates one of the world’s largest wide-body fleets, with over 260 aircraft, including Airbus A380s and Boeing 777s.

It connects Dubai to more than 150 destinations worldwide with a model that focuses on long-haul connectivity, premium service, and global reach. In 2023-2024, Emirates reported a record profit of $4.7 billion, demonstrating the financial power of this model.

Africa has its own success stories with Ethiopian Airlines standing out as the continent’s strongest aviation brand. It has built Addis Ababa into a credible global hub, flying to over 130 destinations with a fleet of more than 140 aircraft. Consistently posting profits in an industry known for losses, with a record $6 billion revenue and 631 million dollars net profit in its 2023/24 fiscal year. Ethiopian demonstrates that African airlines can also compete globally when supported by professional management, long-term strategy, and supportive policy.

Globally, aviation is being reshaped by several powerful trends. Foremost among these is technology. Digital ticketing, biometric immigration clearance, smart baggage handling, and AI-driven operations are reducing delays and improving passenger experience. Airports are becoming smarter, faster, and more predictable. Industry projections estimate that AI in aviation could be a 4.5 billion dollars market by 2027.

Another key trend is sustainability. Aviation accounts for about 2.5% of global carbon emissions, and pressure is mounting to reduce its environmental footprint. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has set a target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Airlines are investing in more fuel-efficient aircraft (like the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787, which offer 20-25% better fuel efficiency), exploring sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) which can reduce lifecycle emissions by up to 80%, and redesigning routes to cut emissions.

Major hubs like Dubai are already planning for greener operations, carbon offsets, and energy-efficient terminals. For example, Dubai Airports has partnered with the UAE government to develop a national SAF roadmap.

Finally, there is the ever-evolving travel demand. While business travel has not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels, down roughly 15-20% globally, leisure travel, diaspora travel, investors travel and regional mobility are growing fast. Africa’s young population (with a median age of 19), expanding middle class (projected to reach 1.1 billion by 2060), and increasing intra-African trade (currently only 15% of total African trade, but with significant growth potential under the AfCFTA) suggest long-term growth in air travel if infrastructure can provide the necessary support.

But what must Nairobi and other African hubs do to emulate and compete with Dubai and similar hubs? First, connectivity matters more than size. Passengers choose hubs that offer convenient routes, short layovers, and reliable schedules and amazing duty free shopping strategy.

Expanding direct connections, especially within Africa, is therefore critical. Currently, intra-African air connectivity is poor, with the continent accounting for less than 5% of global air passenger traffic and biggest growth happens in intra Africa for value addition with airlines like Kenya Airways.

Regional support and collaboration from African states such as The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) that allows people and goods to move freely is critical.

The AfCFTA has the potential to boost African trade by over $30 billion annually and increase air freight demand significantly.

Secondly, investment in passenger experience is a priority. Long queues, inconsistent service, and congestion discourage travelers. Airports that invest in seamless check-in, modern terminals, and predictable processes gain a competitive edge and modernize experience to grow aviation business.

A single point of failure, like a slow immigration system, can cost an airport millions in lost duty-free revenue and future traffic. For instance, implementing biometric systems can reduce processing time increase security, by up to 30%, improving passenger flow and transit and tourism clients’ satisfaction.

Another important factor is considering cargo as a major opportunity for Nairobi as Kenya, is already playing a key role in exporting flowers, fresh produce, and pharmaceuticals, with JKIA handling over 500,000 tonnes of cargo annually.

As global supply chains diversify, African hubs can position themselves as logistics gateways between continents. The global air cargo market is projected to reach 200 billion dollars by 2027, and investing in cold chain facilities and dedicated freight terminals could make Nairobi including fresh flowers and halal meat to capture a larger global market share.

Finally, policy alignment is essential. Successful hubs benefit from coordinated aviation, tourism, trade, and investment policies.

Open skies agreements, stable regulation, and public-private partnerships can unlock growth far faster than infrastructure and investment for the future.

While Africa’s context differs from that of Dubai, the principles behind Dubai’s rise such as long-term planning, decisive investment, airline-airport alignment, and global ambition are transferable.

While the goal should not be to necessarily outgrow Dubai but rather to embed African hubs more deeply into global aviation integrated networks, Nairobi, Cairo, Addis Ababa and other hubs can carve out distinct roles such as regional connectors, cargo specialists, or niche long-haul international trade and business gateways.

The future of aviation will reward hubs that think beyond runways and terminals. It will favor airports that understand their role in trade, tourism, enabling trade and data centers, cargo air-sea investment, and regional integration. Dubai shows what is possible when aviation is treated as a strategic national asset rather than a transport utility but a masterclass city and economic powerhouse.

For Nairobi and other African hubs, the opportunity is real for while passenger numbers may be smaller today, the growth potential is vast. The African aviation market is expected to grow by nearly 5% to 10 per cent annually, over the next two decades, outpacing the global average. With the right mix of leadership, policy and investment, airports like Kenya, JKIA can move from being regional gateways to globally relevant hubs that connect Africa not just to the world but create economic transformation and creation of new jobs and entrepreneurship to support the youth and future aviation leaders.

[The writer is the Chairman of the Adili Group. X: DiazChrisAfrica]