OPINION: Three reasons why bringing peace to Somalia remains an elusive dream

Somalia has a lot going for it. It has Africa's largest coastline. Approximately 3333 kilometers with vast maritime resources, a broadly homogenous ethnic Somali population, and a diaspora of over 2 million people.

However, since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991, peace has been an elusive entity. The country's leadership has fallen from the hands of one ragtag militia to another. Here are three reasons why bringing peace to Somalia remains an elusive dream.

The regime of Siad Barre sowed the seeds of the contemporary divisions in Somalia. His personalistic rule centered on the survival of his regime and consolidating control over the state.

He played clan rivalries against each other to maintain his rule. Once he was ousted in 1991, these divisions exploded into warfare as rival clans attempted to assert their claim to power in the vacuum created by his death.

Another aspect of clannism in post-Barre Somalia has been the 4.5 structure of government set up in 2004. Major positions in government were split between Somalia's major clans.

The remaining 0.5 were given to a grouping of smaller clans. While the 4.5 structure was meant to bring peace to Somalia, it only reinforced clan cleavages and worked against Somalis viewing themselves as Somali. If reimposed the notion of clan first over country.

Secondly, the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006 led to a rise in support for Al Shabbab as the protector of Somali sovereignty. This allowed the group to bolster its bona fide claims to the right to administer the country using Islamic rule.

Al Shabaab provided public goods the central government could not provide to the nation's marginalized populations in rural Somalia. These included security, water, schools and makeshift hospitals. The group also fought the invading Ethiopian army and consolidated its position by taking control of Somalia once the Ethiopian forces had left Somalia in 2009.

Al Shabaab continues to be a threat to peace in Somalia and its neighbors. It has launched several successful attacks in Kenya. It has taken advantage of the civil war in Ethiopia between the government in Addis Ababa and the Tigray rebels to launch attacks on Ethiopia. Peace continues to be elusive.

Lastly, the inability of regime in Mogadishu to consolidate its control nationally and end the terror threat posed by Al Shabaab continues to be a pressing problem. The new Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmud's efforts to drive Al Shabaab further to the periphery, were highlighted this week with his meeting with regional leaders.

The Somalia-Frontline States Summit meeting included Kenya’s William Ruto, Djibouti’s Ismail Omar Guelleh and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. It was scheduled to discuss a coordinated military offensive against Al Shabaab.

Regional mechanisms like the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) offer an effective means to participating nations to cost share on providing security, share intelligence and coordinate efforts against Al Shabbab.

The challenge with using regional forces to bring peace in Somalia is that these foreign forces have their own parochial national interests and face challenges coordinating command between military officers from different nations.

The bigger challenge is the threat of foreign intervention from Somalia's neighbors stoking up nationalist sentiments among Somalis. These are the reasons why bringing peace to Somalia remains an elusive dream.

Prof Monda teaches political science, international relations, and American government at the City University of New York (York College), New York, USA. dmonda@gradcenter.cuny.edu @dmonda1 www.davidmonda.com