Youth Surge: The urgent need to bridge Kenya’s opportunity gap

On June 25, 2025 thousands of young Kenyans poured into the streets of Nairobi and other towns across the country demanding justice, an end to police brutality and a general outcry of lack of opportunities.

While the protests appeared political, the underlying frustration stemmed from long-standing economic exclusion, social neglect, and a lack of opportunities.

The core issue isn’t about party politics. It is about a generation that feels unseen and unheard.

The protests were merely the spark; the true fire had been building over years of joblessness, underfunded education, poor healthcare, and broken promises.

A youth bulge occurs when a country has a large proportion of young people aged 18–34, creating both opportunities and risks.

According to projections by the Kenya Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), this demographic makes up about 28% of the total population, this translates to roughly 15.1 million citizens.

This shifts results from high birth rates and reduced child mortality, leading to a massive working-age population.

 If well-prepared, this cohort can drive economic growth; if neglected, it can destabilize the nation.

The demographic dividend refers to the economic benefits a country experiences when its working-age population exceeds its dependents.

However, this advantage is not automatic as it depends on investments in jobs, education, and health.

South Korea and Singapore achieved their demographic dividends by investing heavily in skills and innovation during their youth surges.

Conversely, Kenya risks missing a similar window of opportunity as stated above especially for young people due to inadequate planning.

The 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) indicates that the fertility rate has declined to 3.4 children per woman but remains above the replacement level of 2.1.

Meanwhile, the country struggles to create enough quality jobs for the hundreds of thousands of youth entering the labor force each year.

According to the KNBS 2024 Labour Force Report, youth aged 18–34 number over 15 million, with many unemployed or underemployed.

The World Bank’s 2023 figures place youth unemployment at 13%, with young women facing even higher rates—around 18%.

Every year, up to 1 million youth enter the job market, yet the economy cannot absorb them adequately. Most find employment in the informal sector, where income is low and jobs are unstable.

Afrobarometer’s 2025 survey reveals that 62% of young Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

About 49% have considered leaving Kenya altogether in search of better opportunities.

In Makueni County, a recent Sauti za Wananchi youth survey conducted by Twaweza East Africa uncovered widespread disillusionment.

Respondents called for vocational training, improved access to agriculture, mental health services, and greater representation in county planning.

The national Sauti za Wananchi surveys echo these sentiments; that young people seek more say, better education, and meaningful employment.

They also emphasize the need for investment in digital skills, local innovation, and youth-led enterprises.

The World Bank’s Kenya Youth Employment and Opportunities Project (KYEOP) offers a glimpse of what is possible.

The 2023 report indicates that over 86,000 youth received support, with 86% starting businesses and more than 125,000 jobs created as a result.

These results demonstrate that youth are not inherently lazy—they simply lack the tools and trust needed to build their futures.

However, most government youth initiatives remain small, underfunded, or poorly managed.

Despite numerous funds like Uwezo and the Youth Enterprise Fund, the 2025/26 national budget again underfunded youth development.

Sectors that benefit youth including tertiary education, health, and agriculture received less than 40% of the requested funding as per the Parliamentary Budget Office, 2025.

Counties like Kiambu and Murang’a have made strides by expanding Early Childhood Development Education (ECDE) centers.

Yet, as birth rates decline and enrollment drops, these counties must pivot toward serving youth aged 18–34 through more polytechnics and vocational centers.

Each new ECDE center should be matched by at least three youth polytechnics, fully equipped and staffed.

Without this, counties risk overinvesting in declining needs while neglecting the population that most requires support.

According to the 2022 KDHS, youth constitute the majority in 32 counties but remain underrepresented in planning and budgeting processes.

The 2024 Council of Governors report indicates that only seven counties include youth representatives in development committees.

The KDHS also shows that 18% of youth lack access to essential health services, particularly sexual and reproductive health (SRH) and mental health support.

These gaps contribute to high rates of teenage pregnancy, depression, and substance abuse.

In education, the Ministry of Education’s 2024 report highlights persistently high dropout rates—22% nationwide, and up to 38% in arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) regions.

Many families cannot afford higher education, and bursary programs are often mismanaged or limited in reach.

In agriculture, FAO’s 2024 Kenya report reveals that over 80% of youth remain landless or lack inputs, despite the sector being the largest employer.

With proper training, credit access, and land reforms, agriculture could absorb millions of youth into sustainable livelihoods.

In the manufacturing sector, Kenya continues to lag behind other African nations.

Youth eager to learn skills in welding, carpentry, mechanics, and digital production face a shortage of training centers which is less than one accredited center per 100,000 youth (TVET Authority, 2025).

Many youth empowerment programs exist in name but lack follow-through, evaluation, or sustained funding.

Without meaningful youth participation in their design and implementation, these initiatives cannot produce lasting results.

Youth representation in Parliament remains largely symbolic.

Aside from a few youth MPs, national debates seldom reflect the concerns or voices of Kenya’s majority age group.

The recent protests were not isolated incidents but were rooted in years of systemic neglect.  

Kenya must urgently institutionalize youth participation in policymaking, budgeting, and implementation.

This includes establishing formal youth-led advisory groups at every county and ministry level.

The government should significantly increase investment in vocational and technical training institutions.

Healthcare programs must expand to include mental health and reproductive health services tailored specifically for youth.

 Investing in youth health ensures a stronger, more stable and productive generation.

More funding should flow into youth-driven agribusiness and small-scale manufacturing—sectors capable of creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and transforming rural economies.

Digital and tech training should be scaled up, but also localized to reflect regional realities. Not every youth will work in fintech; many need practical, hands-on skills to earn a living.

If Kenya can empower its youth with skills, support, and genuine inclusion, it will secure a prosperous future.

This is not just a political issue; it is a national emergency with economic, social, and moral implications. Kenya must act with urgency, vision, and trust in its youth to unlock its demographic promise.