Kenya’s strange offer to mediate US-China tariff war

The trade agreements target road infrastructure, agriculture, health, education, and ICT sectors, among others.

However, during President Ruto’s official state visit to China, his third trip to Beijing since taking office in 2022, the Head of State said that Nairobi is very well positioned to serve as the mediator between the United States and China in the festering trade war between the US and China, by far, the largest world economies.

US state visit, and then to China

Ruto said his state visit to China is comparable to his May 2024 state visit to the United States. 

He further explained that the State visits, first to the US and then to China, might mean that Kenya can serve as the link between the East and the West amid the ongoing tension. 

“This visit as the first African state visit to China this year mirrors my 2024 visit to the US,the first African state visit in 15 years,” Ruto said. 

“Perhaps, symbolically, Kenya can serve as a bridge between East and West, North and South in an era of deepening geopolitical tensions,” he said thanking Chinese leader Xi Jinping, for tens of millions of dollars in support for health, education and disaster relief. 

US-China big GDPs, where is Kenya?

Before delving into Kenya, it might be an eye-opener to look at Africa. In 2024, Africa’s GDP stood at $2.8 trillion, this being the combined economic output of around 1.4 billion people according to data from the  International Monetary Fund. 

But not all of that productivity is distributed equally. The is an economically dominant group of five countries from Africa whose combined economic output equals that of the rest of the continent, 48 countries. 

In the data, the economies of Western Sahara and Eritrea were unavailable, hence not included.

The data from IMF states that the Big Five African economies i.e. South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, and Ethiopia together had a combined GDP of $1.4 trillion. 

This bloc of economically dominant countries had a combined population of 569 million people, or 44% of the continent’s population. 

The rest of Africa, 48 countries in total, also had a combined GDP of $1.4 trillion. Kenya, with Morocco ahead of her, was ranked 7th overall with a GDP of $104 Billion and a population of around 55 M in 2024

IMF data sets show that in 2024, Africa's nominal GDP was approximately $2.80 trillion, while the US had a GDP of around $29 trillion and China had a GDP of roughly $18.5 trillion. The US and China have significantly larger economies than the combined economy of all African nations. Africa's GDP is substantial, but it is still considerably smaller than the economies of the US and China.

What is the end-game with the tariff war?

President William Ruto might have keenly observed the endgame when he said the global trade war triggered by Washington could deal a “death blow” to the current world order. 

Most economists remain sceptical Trump will achieve his aims. Chinese President Xi is looking to shore up partnerships and find solutions for the high trade barrier that the U.S. has imposed on Chinese exports and if Kenya could import more from China, this could be a part of China’s solution to the disrupted American market. 

Kenya, on the other hand should ask itself whether it is importing enough to China and its balance of trade with China. 

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), the trade balance between Kenya and China is significantly in China's favor. 

Kenya suffers a big trade deficit in its trade with the China and as at early this year, Kenya exported $23.5 million to China and imported $547 million, resulting in a negative trade balance of $524 million. This deficit means Kenya is importing more goods from China than it exports to China. 

Geo-politics leaves Kenya nowhere

In geopolitics, the US is a member of the G7 while China is a member of the BRIC+. These are two groups of nations with significant economic global influence. 

The G7, comprising the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada, traditionally represents earlier-on industrialized countries. BRICS+, initially consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, represents emerging economies and has expanded to include new members like Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. 

In 2024, President William Ruto, at a meeting with Li Xi, a high-ranking China Communist Party official, made the request to China to start the process of incorporating Kenya as a member of BRICS, by directly seeking China’s backing to join the influential bloc of emerging economies.

Since President Trump assumed power, he has ramped up tariffs levied on China’s goods up to 145 percent. Beijing retaliated with duties of its own, at 125 percent on US goods. 

President Trump for some time accused China of exploiting the US on trade, and says his tariffs are necessary to revive domestic manufacturing and restore jobs back to the US that were shipped abroad. President Trump also wants to use tariffs to finance tax cuts. 

Did Kenya go to seek favors or mediate a conflict?

With this background and in the context of an official state visit, it therefore came as surprising to have Kenya offer to mediate between the US and China on their bitter tariff war, a comment to which the hosts had no reply to, that is, if they ever did hear. 

In offering to bridge the gap between the US and China, probably Kenya might have been a serious contender if it had the clout of a serious global economic power or better still, possess the a highly vibrant camaraderie with both the leaders of the US and China, both of which are lacking. 

In a world that does not respect beggars, many were of the opinion that Kenya might have gone to China with a concealed “bowl.” 

Africa, let alone Kenya, has not been trading with itself well enough, lacks unity of purpose and self-love to command the respect and attention of the world powers when it offers its opinion on any global matter, as is the case now with tariffs.  

President Trump has been dismissive of Africa in not very diplomatic words and at best ignores the continent altogether. 

The US officials’ recent incursions into Africa, specifically the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), is due to DRC’s massive and rare natural resources even as the US makes no secret of the fact that it is seeking thereof a security-for-minerals deal.

Never too late for Intra-Africa trade 

Africa, if it plays its cards well could as well emerge as a major actor in world affairs, by exerting its position on political, economic, and strategic global shifts. 

Africa is blessed with huge natural resources, a vibrant and increasingly educated youthful population, in-demand minerals, huge markets of over 1.54 billion people, and most of all clean hands, that have never dealt perjury before.

In any case Kenya and indeed Africa should also look inward to make intra-Africa trade a reality and indeed the biggest market to limit shocks that occur with global trading networks which do not have Kenya’s or Africa’s wellbeing at heart.