Kenya faces heightened political instability, civil unrest in 2026 - Report

A new global security report warns that the aftershocks of last year’s Gen Z–led protests continue to shape risk planning by businesses and investors. 

Political instability and civil unrest have been ranked as the top security threats facing Kenya in 2026, according to the latest World Security Report by security firm G4S.

The report shows 45 per cent of security leaders expect political instability to pose a major risk next year, while 43 per cent cite civil unrest, the highest levels recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa.

"In response to events of 2024 and 2025, when we had Gen Z-led protests. Some of these issues are perhaps still prevalent in the country, and we have an election due in 2027. What we have seen, and historically we have seen 12 to 18 months before the election, the political temperatures start rising, and this has led security officers to consider these as potential hazards," Laurence Okelo, Managing Director, G4S Kenya stated. 

These risks are already impacting business. Twenty-one percent of Kenyan companies say they expect protests or demonstrations to affect operations this year, with retail and hospitality among the hardest hit sectors.

Encouragingly, concerns over economic instability are expected to ease, falling to 41 per cent from 52 per cent in 2024. However, fraud remains the leading external threat to companies, driven largely by financial pressures.

"That is likely to be a result of the economic situation in Kenya now compared to what it was 12 to 18 months ago. We have seen exchange rates stabilising, we have seen interest rates coming down, we have seen inflation stabilising, and all of these point towards a better economic climate, better GDP growth," Okelo stated.

Security chiefs warn that unrest comes at a high cost. Nearly half of the firms surveyed reported revenue losses linked to security incidents, while many also faced rising insurance premiums.

As a result, 79 per cent of Kenyan businesses plan to increase spending on physical security, prioritising new technology, risk assessments, and regulatory compliance.

The findings are based on a survey of more than 2,300 chief security officers globally, including 58 from Kenya, alongside insights from major institutional investors managing over one trillion dollars in assets.

Despite easing economic pressures, this global security report shows Kenyan businesses remain on high alert in 2026, driving increased investment in smarter security systems, stronger risk planning, and workforce protection to keep operations and investor confidence intact.